Matreshka Team vs Hot Headed Gaming — prediction DPC2S1ВЕЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Matreshka Teamwin 2:0

series probability

51%49%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Hot Headed Gamingloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

No games played over 6 months.

Hot Headed Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

351 picks · 319 bans

49%

Tusk

292 picks · 276 bans

58%

Marci

273 picks · 518 bans

55%

Undying

250 picks · 458 bans

52%

Pangolier

244 picks · 535 bans

53%

Primal Beast

225 picks · 573 bans

53%

Shadow Fiend

217 picks · 332 bans

54%

Crystal Maiden

208 picks · 126 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%

Hero pool strength50% Matreshka Team

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total51% Matreshka Team

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed52:32

Matreshka Team 49%Hot Headed Gaming 51%

The model gave 51% on Hot Headed Gaming — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 45:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo