BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Ancient Tribe
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
Tiny
Alexxo · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 7 games
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 318 bans
Tusk
292 picks · 274 bans
Marci
273 picks · 518 bans
Undying
249 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 534 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 573 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 332 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 126 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:6
PuckChamp 62%Ancient Tribe 38%
The model gave 62% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 20:31.
Game 2prediction missed12:36
PuckChamp 62%Ancient Tribe 38%
The model gave 62% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 32:11.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 62%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2