DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
BCBreeki Cheekiwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
VP.Prodigy
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 26 games
Tiny
raregods · 22 games
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 18 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Katsura · 17 games
Disruptor
JANTER · 16 games
Puckoften banned
Serenada · 16 games
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
Breeki Cheeki
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
646 picks · 724 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 479 bans
Tusk
491 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
437 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
400 picks · 335 bans
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1093 bans
Mars
383 picks · 569 bans
Puck
383 picks · 801 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:37
VP.Prodigy 68%Breeki Cheeki 32%
The model gave 68% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Breeki Cheeki in 38:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 68%
Series resultBreeki Cheeki 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1