?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Sigma.YNTwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
team surplusloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
kur0patbI4 · 30 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
dSa · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 15 games
47%
Dazzle
Dazzle
dSa · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
43%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 14 games
50%

team surplus

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
348 picks · 321 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
291 picks · 274 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
273 picks · 520 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
251 picks · 459 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
244 picks · 533 bans
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
225 picks · 573 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 332 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 125 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% team surplus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:26
Sigma.YNT 46%team surplus 54%
The model gave 54% on team surplus — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 42:59.
Game 2prediction correct18:39
Sigma.YNT 46%team surplus 54%
The model gave 54% on team surplus — the game was taken by team surplus in 36:05.
Game 3prediction missed27:15
Sigma.YNT 46%team surplus 54%
The model gave 54% on team surplus — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 43:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteteam surplus · 54%
Series resultSigma.YNT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3