Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
RZ Esportsloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RZ Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Lilgun
Tusksignature
ace12 · 8 games
Tiny
ace12 · 5 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
423 · 4 games
Clockwerk
Se · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
eleven · 4 games
Lone Druidoften banned
423 · 3 games
Silenceroften banned
Se · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 319 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 274 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
253 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 531 bans
Primal Beast
224 picks · 571 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 331 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 122 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 27%
Hero pool strength57% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:37
RZ Esports 49%Lilgun 51%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 33:51.
Game 2prediction correct15:40
RZ Esports 49%Lilgun 51%
The model gave 51% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 30:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 51%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2