Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTUloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOTU
No games played over 6 months.
Winter Bear
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 273 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
253 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 530 bans
Primal Beast
224 picks · 571 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 330 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 122 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% HOTU
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% HOTU
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:52
HOTU 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on HOTU — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 1:01:28.
Game 2prediction missed48:16
HOTU 59%Winter Bear 41%
The model gave 59% on HOTU — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 31:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 59%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2