BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
YNTloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
YNT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 273 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
253 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 529 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 571 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 329 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 122 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 59%
Hero pool strength50% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:24
HellRaisers 70%YNT 30%
The model gave 70% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by YNT in 38:59.
Game 2prediction missed26:14
HellRaisers 70%YNT 30%
The model gave 70% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by YNT in 34:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 70%
Series resultHellRaisers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2