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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CYBER UNIONloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Tusk
Tusksignature
Lefitan · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
HappyDyurara · 11 games
64%
Zeus
Zeusoften banned
Askold · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
60%
Silencer
Silencersignature
HappyDyurara · 9 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Worick · 8 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Askold · 8 games
38%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Cloud · 7 games
86%

CYBER UNION

Tiny
Tiny
Miyaoo · 12 games
33%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Arti_Shock · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
OneJey · 10 games
20%
Lich
Lich
Arti_Shock · 6 games
17%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
60%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
OneJey · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
347 picks · 315 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
284 picks · 271 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 456 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
241 picks · 527 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
223 picks · 567 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 325 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total77% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:9
Hydra 66%CYBER UNION 34%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKami
47% · 124 games49% · 120 games
Doomklassnokruto
Doom
Beastmaster
BeastmasterCloud
52% · 175 games53% · 141 game
Terrorbladedizzying
Terrorblade
Tusk
TuskWorick
53% · 156 games50% · 48 games
Outworld DestroyerMiyaoo
Outworld Destroyer
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageLefitan
53% · 89 games47% · 216 games
ClockwerkOneJey
Clockwerk
Undying
UndyingHappyDyurara
52% · 108 games46% · 127 games
Crystal MaidenArti_Shock
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct29:19
Hydra 68%CYBER UNION 32%
The model gave 68% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKami
45% · 124 games47% · 66 games
Naga Sirendizzying
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawCloud
48% · 170 games49% · 88 games
Lycanklassnokruto
Lycan
Tusk
TuskWorick
51% · 283 games52% · 141 game
Death ProphetMiyaoo
Death Prophet
Night Stalker
Night StalkerLefitan
46% · 82 games52% · 163 games
MiranaArti_Shock
Mirana
Disruptor
DisruptorHappyDyurara
56% · 132 games52% · 333 games
TinyOneJey
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 77%
Series resultHydra 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2