Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 8 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 8 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
Snapfire
Se · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Enryu · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Se · 6 games
SPAWN Team
Disruptor
TraVins · 9 games
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 7 games
Mirana
TraVins · 6 games
Tusk
dalul · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
Marcioften banned
dalul · 5 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dalul · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
347 picks · 315 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 271 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 527 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 567 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 325 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:34
Neon Esports 59%SPAWN Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 40:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightFortuneSoul
BloodseekerJikroy
LycanEnryu
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
SnapfireHated
UnderlordRed
48% · 117 games
Tuskdalul
47% · 51 game
SilencerTraVins
Game 2prediction missed21:42
Neon Esports 59%SPAWN Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 46:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomFortuneSoul
MorphlingJikroy
BroodmotherEnryu
KunkkaMamangDaya
Crystal MaidenHated
DawnbreakerRed
47% · 27 games
Spirit Breakerdalul
52% · 70 games
MiranaTraVins
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 67%
Series resultSPAWN Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2