Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 1:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 1:0
L2LeClassique 2.0loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Enchantresssignature
RodjER · 7 games
Clockwerk
Astral · 5 games
Keeper of the Light
young G · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 4 games
Marcioften banned
Dukalis · 4 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 4 games
Bane
Dukalis · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
krylat · 3 games
LeClassique 2.0
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 314 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 270 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 525 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 565 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 325 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Old G 86%LeClassique 2.0 14%
The model gave 86% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 86%
Series resultOld G 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1