Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Limitwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FH Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Limit
Tusk
Echo · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 3 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 3 games
Tiny
Yds · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Victoria · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Victoria · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Xm · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Xm · 2 games
FH Gaming
Dazzle
斗圣 · 3 games
Lich
斗圣 · 3 games
Disruptor
斗圣 · 2 games
Mirana
斗圣 · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
斗圣 · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 314 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 270 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 525 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 565 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 325 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Limit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
Limit 68%FH Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaXm
Lich斗圣
Death ProphetEcho
BeastmasterSrf
LionYds
Treant ProtectorVictoria
Game 2prediction correct32:31
Limit 61%FH Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 55:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendXm
Disruptor斗圣
LeshracEcho
Dark SeerSrf
TinyYds
LichVictoria
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 71%
Series resultLimit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2