Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnuswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Kingpinloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
No games played over 6 months.
Team Kingpin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 314 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 270 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
241 picks · 525 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 565 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 325 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Magnus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:25
Team Magnus 55%Team Kingpin 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 40:53.
Game 2prediction correct
Team Magnus 55%Team Kingpin 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 55%
Series resultTeam Magnus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2