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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
GamerLegionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 42 games
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 40 games
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 40 games
70%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
erase · 32 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 30 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 29 games
69%

GamerLegion

Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 22 games
41%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Speeed · 21 game
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 20 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Speeed · 20 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Bignum · 20 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
RCY · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Speeed · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
646 picks · 731 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 481 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 396 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
442 picks · 297 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
403 picks · 1091 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
401 picks · 334 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 801 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 571 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% GamerLegion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:39
HULIGANI 50%GamerLegion 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunassnovv1
52% · 119 games49% · 203 games
MuertaGhost
Muerta
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
55% · 488 games45% · 354 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
49% · 322 games48% · 185 games
UnderlordFayde
Underlord
Pugna
PugnaRESPECT
57% · 221 game48% · 197 games
PhoenixSpeeed
Phoenix
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
53% · 298 games45% · 509 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed22:13
HULIGANI 49%GamerLegion 51%
The model gave 51% on GamerLegion — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverssnovv1
53% · 94 games48% · 174 games
Templar AssassinGhost
Templar Assassin
Sand King
Sand KingMirage
55% · 235 games40% · 258 games
BeastmasterRCY
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
49% · 146 games63% · 192 games
SlardarFayde
Slardar
Mars
MarsCorrupted
48% · 342 games41% · 55 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Rubick
Rubicksayuw
47% · 86 games53% · 224 games
RingmasterBignum
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed12:33
HULIGANI 52%GamerLegion 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 37:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMirage
49% · 267 games50% · 222 games
MuertaGhost
Muerta
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
56% · 81 game44% · 324 games
Queen of PainRCY
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
59% · 224 games45% · 353 games
PangolierFayde
Pangolier
Tusk
Tusksayuw
46% · 391 game49% · 109 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressRESPECT
51% · 113 games52% · 68 games
VenomancerSpeeed
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 53%
Series resultGamerLegion 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3