Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Supernovawin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
你这肥宅说话还挺搞笑的loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Supernova
Hoodwink
sheep · 4 games
Mirana
sheep · 1 game
Snapfire
sheep · 1 game
你这肥宅说话还挺搞笑的
Mirana
Ayo · 5 games
Snapfire
Ayo · 5 games
Tusk
strawberry · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Shining · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Zyd · 4 games
Sniperoften banned
Zyd · 3 games
Clockwerk
strawberry · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Zyd · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
345 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 269 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 524 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 562 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 323 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% 你这肥宅说话还挺搞笑的
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Supernova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:44
Supernova 49%你这肥宅说话还挺搞笑的 51%
The model gave 51% on 你这肥宅说话还挺搞笑的 — the game was taken by 你这肥宅说话还挺搞笑的 in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Rubicksheep
Death ProphetShining
52% · 44 games
PangolierZyd
49% · 35 games
HoodwinkAyo
56% · 32 games
Clockwerkstrawberry
Game 2prediction correct30:34
Supernova 51%你这肥宅说话还挺搞笑的 49%
The model gave 51% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tusksheep
Primal BeastZyd
53% · 32 games
Death ProphetShining
48% · 136 games
TinyAyo
54% · 64 games
Snapfirestrawberry
Game 3prediction correct
Supernova 52%你这肥宅说话还挺搞笑的 48%
The model gave 52% on Supernova — the game was taken by Supernova.
Model check result
Model favoriteSupernova · 52%
Series resultSupernova 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3