Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionOMour manager's last hope 6loss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Kingpinwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
our manager's last hope 6
No games played over 6 months.
Team Kingpin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
345 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 269 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 524 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 562 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 323 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% our manager's last hope 6
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% our manager's last hope 6
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:41
our manager's last hope 6 53%Team Kingpin 47%
The model gave 53% on our manager's last hope 6 — the game was taken by our manager's last hope 6 in 28:33.
Game 2prediction missed55:31
our manager's last hope 6 53%Team Kingpin 47%
The model gave 53% on our manager's last hope 6 — the game was taken by Team Kingpin in 52:44.
Game 3prediction missed43:32
our manager's last hope 6 53%Team Kingpin 47%
The model gave 53% on our manager's last hope 6 — the game was taken by Team Kingpin in 42:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteour manager's last hope 6 · 53%
Series resultTeam Kingpin 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3