Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Ybb Gamingwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustPlaYGameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ybb Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
JustPlaYGame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 267 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 521 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 561 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 321 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Ybb Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Ybb Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:3
Ybb Gaming 70%JustPlaYGame 30%
The model gave 70% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by JustPlaYGame in 20:10.
Game 2prediction missed25:2
Ybb Gaming 70%JustPlaYGame 30%
The model gave 70% on Ybb Gaming — the game was taken by JustPlaYGame in 14:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteYbb Gaming · 70%
Series resultYbb Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2