BetBoom Xmas Show · BO3
result vs prediction
RISE Esportsloss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RISE Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Nemiga Gaming
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
Kiritych · 6 games
Lifestealersignature
Kiritych · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
Corrupted · 6 games
Phoenix
Hellscream · 6 games
Centaur Warrunner
Corrupted · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
so bad · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Hellscream · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 265 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 519 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 561 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 321 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 120 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:35
RISE Esports 36%Nemiga Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 54:46.
Game 2prediction correct35:17
RISE Esports 36%Nemiga Gaming 64%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 64%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2