Earth Gaming vs Hokori — prediction DS2ОО · Dota 2

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DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

EGEarth Gamingloss 0:2

series probability

25%75%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Hokoriwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Earth Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Hokori

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

654 picks · 743 bans

49%

Tiny

535 picks · 488 bans

49%

Tusk

493 picks · 404 bans

49%

Warlock

445 picks · 303 bans

48%

Shadow Demon

407 picks · 1103 bans

56%

Phoenix

398 picks · 330 bans

55%

Puck

388 picks · 801 bans

52%

Mars

385 picks · 579 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% Earth Gaming

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total75% Hokori

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct11:21

Earth Gaming 35%Hokori 65%

The model gave 65% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 36:52.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo