Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Omega Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 265 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 519 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 561 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 321 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 120 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Lava 60%Omega Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Game 2prediction correct
Lava 60%Omega Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 60%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2