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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CYBER UNIONloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Matreshka Team

No games played over 6 months.

CYBER UNION

Tiny
Tiny
Miyaoo · 12 games
33%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Arti_Shock · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
OneJey · 10 games
20%
Lich
Lich
Arti_Shock · 6 games
17%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 5 games
60%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
OneJey · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
OneJey · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 310 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 261 bans
57%
Marci
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
55%
Undying
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
237 picks · 513 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
222 picks · 557 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 119 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% CYBER UNION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:45
Matreshka Team 47%CYBER UNION 53%
The model gave 53% on CYBER UNION — the game was taken by CYBER UNION in 58:31.
Game 2prediction missed24:29
Matreshka Team 47%CYBER UNION 53%
The model gave 53% on CYBER UNION — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 35:20.
Game 3prediction missed20:33
Matreshka Team 47%CYBER UNION 53%
The model gave 53% on CYBER UNION — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 44:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteCYBER UNION · 53%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3