Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
5 myyraaloss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NNOSTRVMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5 myyraa
No games played over 6 months.
NOSTRVM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 309 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 259 bans
Marci
273 picks · 522 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 513 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 556 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% 5 myyraa
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% NOSTRVM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:50
5 myyraa 38%NOSTRVM 62%
The model gave 62% on NOSTRVM — the game was taken by NOSTRVM in 1:00:56.
Game 2prediction missed30:34
5 myyraa 38%NOSTRVM 62%
The model gave 62% on NOSTRVM — the game was taken by 5 myyraa in 52:30.
Game 3prediction correct42:23
5 myyraa 38%NOSTRVM 62%
The model gave 62% on NOSTRVM — the game was taken by NOSTRVM in 38:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteNOSTRVM · 62%
Series resultNOSTRVM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3