Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
outsidersloss 0:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:0
Marlerino ESportsloss 0:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
outsiders
No games played over 6 months.
Marlerino ESports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 304 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 254 bans
Marci
273 picks · 521 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 507 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 551 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 320 bans
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% outsiders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% outsiders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteoutsiders · 50%