Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
KOBOLDSloss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NNerdRigwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KOBOLDS
No games played over 6 months.
NerdRig
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 252 bans
Marci
273 picks · 521 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 507 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 547 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 317 bans
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% KOBOLDS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:37
KOBOLDS 51%NerdRig 49%
The model gave 51% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by NerdRig in 44:37.
Game 2prediction correct39:41
KOBOLDS 51%NerdRig 49%
The model gave 51% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by KOBOLDS in 40:15.
Game 3prediction missed13:49
KOBOLDS 51%NerdRig 49%
The model gave 51% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by NerdRig in 31:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOBOLDS · 51%
Series resultNerdRig 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3