Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Atomic Esportswin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Reaperloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Atomic Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Marb · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 2 games
Tiny
Nishababy · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Linaoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Outworld Destroyer
Nishababy · 1 game
Reaper
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 252 bans
Marci
273 picks · 521 bans
Undying
252 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 507 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 547 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 317 bans
Crystal Maiden
204 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Atomic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Atomic Esports 65%Reaper 35%
The model gave 65% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports.
Game 2prediction correct
Atomic Esports 65%Reaper 35%
The model gave 65% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtomic Esports · 65%
Series resultAtomic Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2