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European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
emptiness · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
bengan · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Jeezy · 7 games
71%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
33%
Dazzle
Dazzle
bengan · 5 games
80%

Kalmychata

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 4 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 3 games
67%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
ani-san · 3 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
ani-san · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
489 picks · 292 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
359 picks · 159 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
356 picks · 154 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 476 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
301 picks · 299 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 467 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
286 picks · 265 bans
59%
Undying
Undying
268 picks · 367 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Synapse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:44
Team Synapse 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidTA2000
55% · 119 games54% · 114 games
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Nature's Prophet
Doom
Doomemptiness
49% · 214 games43% · 59 games
Linanicky`cool
Lina
Ringmaster
Ringmasterbengan
54% · 278 games47% · 70 games
EnigmaAnkou
Enigma
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJeezy
54% · 311 games50% · 502 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
42% · 177 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct39:10
Team Synapse 56%Kalmychata 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 37:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTA2000
46% · 315 games53% · 93 games
Svenyowaai
Sven
Mars
Marsemptiness
51% · 220 games55% · 82 games
Linanicky`cool
Lina
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
41% · 216 games54% · 87 games
EnigmaAnkou
Enigma
Dazzle
Dazzlebengan
53% · 93 games50% · 309 games
Windrangerxsvampire
Windranger
51% · 273 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct30:16
Team Synapse 57%Kalmychata 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTA2000
49% · 181 game54% · 101 game
Muertayowaai
Muerta
Timbersaw
Timbersawemptiness
51% · 215 games47% · 297 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
44% · 253 games58% · 66 games
EnigmaAnkou
Enigma
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernbengan
54% · 190 games47% · 167 games
Miranaani-san
Mirana
47% · 208 games
Windrangerxsvampire
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 60%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3