Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Matreshka Teamwin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Comebackloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Matreshka Team
No games played over 6 months.
Comeback
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 252 bans
Marci
273 picks · 523 bans
Undying
253 picks · 450 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 504 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 546 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 317 bans
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Comeback
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:39
Matreshka Team 47%Comeback 53%
The model gave 53% on Comeback — the game was taken by Comeback in 43:33.
Game 2prediction missed47:20
Matreshka Team 47%Comeback 53%
The model gave 53% on Comeback — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 38:58.
Game 3prediction missed41:10
Matreshka Team 47%Comeback 53%
The model gave 53% on Comeback — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 27:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteComeback · 53%
Series resultMatreshka Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3