Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionCGCreep Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Galkynyshloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Creep Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Galkynysh
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 297 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 249 bans
Marci
273 picks · 523 bans
Undying
252 picks · 450 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 501 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 317 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Creep Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Creep Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Creep Gaming 57%Galkynysh 43%
The model gave 57% on Creep Gaming — the game was taken by Creep Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreep Gaming · 57%
Series resultCreep Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1