Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Unholy Amberloss 0:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:1
nitrokgwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Unholy Amber
No games played over 6 months.
nitrokg
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
342 picks · 297 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 249 bans
Marci
273 picks · 523 bans
Undying
252 picks · 450 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 501 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 317 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Unholy Amber
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Unholy Amber
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:23
Unholy Amber 61%nitrokg 39%
The model gave 61% on Unholy Amber — the game was taken by nitrokg in 43:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteUnholy Amber · 61%
Series resultnitrokg 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1