Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
TeamBlinkwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TeamBlink
No games played over 6 months.
KZ TEAM
Earthshakersignature
dEsire · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Pudgeoften banned
Nande · 9 games
Vipersignature
W1sh- · 9 games
Batridersignature
W1sh- · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 7 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 297 bans
Marci
283 picks · 527 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 249 bans
Undying
259 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 504 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 545 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 319 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 118 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% TeamBlink
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
TeamBlink 52%KZ TEAM 48%
The model gave 52% on TeamBlink — the game was taken by TeamBlink.
Game 2prediction correct
TeamBlink 52%KZ TEAM 48%
The model gave 52% on TeamBlink — the game was taken by TeamBlink.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeamBlink · 52%
Series resultTeamBlink 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2