Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fantasy Gamingwin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
S2Bloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fantasy Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
S2B
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 290 bans
Marci
283 picks · 529 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 249 bans
Undying
260 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
240 picks · 499 bans
Primal Beast
223 picks · 541 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 318 bans
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Fantasy Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Fantasy Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:9
Fantasy Gaming 53%S2B 47%
The model gave 53% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by S2B in 27:20.
Game 2prediction correct25:26
Fantasy Gaming 53%S2B 47%
The model gave 53% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming in 32:19.
Game 3prediction correct14:37
Fantasy Gaming 53%S2B 47%
The model gave 53% on Fantasy Gaming — the game was taken by Fantasy Gaming in 25:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteFantasy Gaming · 53%
Series resultFantasy Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3