Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
team surpluswin 2:1series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
team surplus
No games played over 6 months.
Natus Vincere Junior
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 285 bans
Marci
284 picks · 530 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 243 bans
Undying
258 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
238 picks · 491 bans
Primal Beast
222 picks · 539 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% team surplus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:44
team surplus 34%Natus Vincere Junior 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:23.
Game 2prediction missed36:5
team surplus 34%Natus Vincere Junior 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by team surplus in 28:07.
Game 3prediction missed
team surplus 34%Natus Vincere Junior 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by team surplus.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 66%
Series resultteam surplus 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3