Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticoswin 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dream Walkerloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yangon Galacticos
Tiny
Ksh · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Outworld Destroyer
Young PH · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Dream Walker
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 285 bans
Marci
285 picks · 534 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 243 bans
Undying
261 picks · 453 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 490 bans
Primal Beast
224 picks · 536 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:22
Yangon Galacticos 60%Dream Walker 40%
The model gave 60% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 46:49.
Game 2prediction correct41:17
Yangon Galacticos 60%Dream Walker 40%
The model gave 60% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 37:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 60%
Series resultYangon Galacticos 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2