Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
SPAWN Teamwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atomic Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SPAWN Team
Disruptor
TraVins · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
Marcioften banned
dalul · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 5 games
Mirana
TraVins · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dalul · 4 games
Tiny
dalul · 4 games
Atomic Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Marb · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Outworld Destroyer
Nishababy · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Tiny
Nishababy · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 285 bans
Marci
285 picks · 534 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 243 bans
Undying
261 picks · 453 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 490 bans
Primal Beast
224 picks · 536 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Atomic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:30
SPAWN Team 46%Atomic Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 42:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PudgeJikroy
Naga SirenMarb
Spirit BreakerRed
LinaNishababy
TuskMamangDaya
Rubickdalul
SilencerTraVins
Game 2prediction missed33:11
SPAWN Team 46%Atomic Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJikroy
SlarkMarb
TuskMamangDaya
Shadow FiendNishababy
TidehunterRed
Rubickdalul
SilencerTraVins
Game 3prediction missed38:35
SPAWN Team 49%Atomic Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenJikroy
Nature's ProphetMarb
Dark SeerRed
TinyNishababy
TuskMamangDaya
Nyx Assassindalul
DisruptorTraVins
Model check result
Model favoriteAtomic Esports · 55%
Series resultSPAWN Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3