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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Dmokafarm Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SPAWN Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dmokafarm Esports

No games played over 6 months.

SPAWN Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
TraVins · 7 games
43%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jikroy · 5 games
80%
Marci
Marcioften banned
dalul · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
TraVins · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Jikroy · 4 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
dalul · 4 games
75%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
TraVins · 4 games
0%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Jikroy · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 284 bans
48%
Marci
Marci
287 picks · 532 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
277 picks · 240 bans
58%
Undying
Undying
261 picks · 454 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
238 picks · 489 bans
52%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
225 picks · 531 bans
54%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 316 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% SPAWN Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Dmokafarm Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed5:23
Dmokafarm Esports 53%SPAWN Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Dmokafarm Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 23:11.
Game 2prediction missed3:25
Dmokafarm Esports 53%SPAWN Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Dmokafarm Esports — the game was taken by SPAWN Team in 25:05.
Model check result
Model favoriteDmokafarm Esports · 53%
Series resultSPAWN Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2