Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Reaperloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atomic Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Reaper
No games played over 6 months.
Atomic Esports
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Marb · 3 games
Morphlingoften banned
Marb · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Nishababy · 1 game
Outworld Destroyer
Nishababy · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
Marb · 1 game
Tiny
Nishababy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 284 bans
Marci
287 picks · 532 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 240 bans
Undying
261 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
238 picks · 489 bans
Primal Beast
225 picks · 531 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Atomic Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Atomic Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
Reaper 40%Atomic Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 23:52.
Game 2prediction correct23:48
Reaper 40%Atomic Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Atomic Esports — the game was taken by Atomic Esports in 30:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtomic Esports · 60%
Series resultAtomic Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2