Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kingpinloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EEminencewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kingpin
No games played over 6 months.
Eminence
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 280 bans
Marci
288 picks · 533 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 235 bans
Undying
262 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 482 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 530 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Kingpin
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Eminence
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:50
Team Kingpin 46%Eminence 54%
The model gave 54% on Eminence — the game was taken by Eminence in 43:18.
Game 2prediction correct32:33
Team Kingpin 46%Eminence 54%
The model gave 54% on Eminence — the game was taken by Eminence in 41:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteEminence · 54%
Series resultEminence 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2