Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionHHININGAloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TiltedBoyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HININGA
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 280 bans
Marci
288 picks · 533 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 235 bans
Undying
262 picks · 451 bans
Pangolier
239 picks · 482 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 530 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 316 bans
Crystal Maiden
205 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% HININGA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:56
HININGA 46%TiltedBoys 54%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 49:21.
Game 2prediction correct26:40
HININGA 46%TiltedBoys 54%
The model gave 54% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys in 33:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 54%
Series resultTiltedBoys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2