Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTUwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TTitansWithoutNumbersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HOTU
No games played over 6 months.
TitansWithoutNumbers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 276 bans
Marci
289 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 232 bans
Undying
264 picks · 452 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 478 bans
Primal Beast
226 picks · 531 bans
Shadow Fiend
213 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% HOTU
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% TitansWithoutNumbers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:8
HOTU 46%TitansWithoutNumbers 54%
The model gave 54% on TitansWithoutNumbers — the game was taken by HOTU in 9:43.
Game 2prediction missed
HOTU 46%TitansWithoutNumbers 54%
The model gave 54% on TitansWithoutNumbers — the game was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteTitansWithoutNumbers · 54%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2