DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:0series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EEokaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Amaru Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 9 games
Kezsignature
Wits · 9 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 7 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 7 games
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
Eoka
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
654 picks · 742 bans
Tiny
535 picks · 488 bans
Tusk
493 picks · 404 bans
Warlock
445 picks · 303 bans
Shadow Demon
407 picks · 1100 bans
Phoenix
398 picks · 327 bans
Puck
388 picks · 799 bans
Mars
385 picks · 579 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:30
Amaru Gaming 77%Eoka 23%
The model gave 77% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 1:00:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeK1
Spirit BreakerN1NE
DoomOscar
HoodwinkMichael
OraclePanda
Game 2prediction correct
Amaru Gaming 91%Eoka 9%
The model gave 91% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 91%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2