Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionLLegacywin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Arkosh Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Arkosh Gaming
Pudgeoften banned
Dendi · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
Rubick
Dendi · 1 game
Tiny
Dendi · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 275 bans
Marci
293 picks · 540 bans
Tusk
277 picks · 233 bans
Undying
269 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
242 picks · 477 bans
Primal Beast
227 picks · 532 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Legacy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Legacy 51%Arkosh Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy.
Game 2prediction correct
Legacy 51%Arkosh Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 51%
Series resultLegacy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2