Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Fart Studioswin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MFmakima fanclubloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fart Studios
No games played over 6 months.
makima fanclub
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 273 bans
Marci
295 picks · 545 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 231 bans
Undying
271 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
244 picks · 475 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 531 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% makima fanclub
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Fart Studios 46%makima fanclub 54%
The model gave 54% on makima fanclub — the game was taken by Fart Studios.
Game 2prediction missed
Fart Studios 46%makima fanclub 54%
The model gave 54% on makima fanclub — the game was taken by Fart Studios.
Model check result
Model favoritemakima fanclub · 54%
Series resultFart Studios 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2