Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU Gamingwin 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GGGhetto Gardenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HAVU Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Ghetto Garden
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 270 bans
Marci
297 picks · 546 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 221 bans
Undying
273 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 465 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 524 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 312 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% HAVU Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Ghetto Garden
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:26
HAVU Gaming 44%Ghetto Garden 56%
The model gave 56% on Ghetto Garden — the game was taken by HAVU Gaming in 21:03.
Game 2prediction missed30:38
HAVU Gaming 44%Ghetto Garden 56%
The model gave 56% on Ghetto Garden — the game was taken by HAVU Gaming in 46:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteGhetto Garden · 56%
Series resultHAVU Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2