Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
beatifullloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beatifull
No games played over 6 months.
Winter Bear
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
346 picks · 269 bans
Marci
297 picks · 546 bans
Tusk
279 picks · 220 bans
Undying
273 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 465 bans
Primal Beast
230 picks · 524 bans
Shadow Fiend
216 picks · 312 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 113 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength50% beatifull
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% beatifull
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:18
beatifull 51%Winter Bear 49%
The model gave 51% on beatifull — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 25:31.
Game 2prediction missed30:18
beatifull 51%Winter Bear 49%
The model gave 51% on beatifull — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 28:38.
Model check result
Model favoritebeatifull · 51%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2