Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SESky Encore Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Snapfire
Se · 11 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 8 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 8 games
Earthshaker
PlayHard · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 7 games
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Se · 7 games
Sky Encore Esports
Monkey Kingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Nature's Prophet
Abat · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Abat · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 267 bans
Marci
299 picks · 547 bans
Tusk
280 picks · 219 bans
Undying
275 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 458 bans
Primal Beast
231 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 309 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Sky Encore Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:30
Neon Esports 51%Sky Encore Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 45:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerFortuneSoul
GyrocopterAbat
SlardarEnryu
SilencerHated
Game 2prediction missed39:20
Neon Esports 47%Sky Encore Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Sky Encore Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageFortuneSoul
MedusaAbat
BeastmasterEnryu
SilencerHated
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 55%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2