Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CGCreep Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere Junior
No games played over 6 months.
Creep Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
348 picks · 267 bans
Marci
299 picks · 547 bans
Tusk
280 picks · 219 bans
Undying
275 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 458 bans
Primal Beast
231 picks · 520 bans
Shadow Fiend
217 picks · 309 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 112 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:10
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Creep Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 26:58.
Game 2prediction correct32:49
Natus Vincere Junior 52%Creep Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 50:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 52%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2