DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionKKukuysV3loss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Carstensz Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KukuysV3
No games played over 6 months.
Carstensz Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
664 picks · 767 bans
Tiny
546 picks · 514 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 413 bans
Warlock
454 picks · 312 bans
Shadow Demon
415 picks · 1113 bans
Puck
396 picks · 800 bans
Phoenix
395 picks · 319 bans
Mars
389 picks · 593 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% KukuysV3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% KukuysV3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
KukuysV3 72%Carstensz Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on KukuysV3 — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports.
Game 3prediction missed
KukuysV3 72%Carstensz Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on KukuysV3 — the game was taken by Carstensz Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteKukuysV3 · 72%
Series resultCarstensz Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2