Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NNOSTRVMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Tiny
OmaR · 17 games
Iosignature
Eixn · 10 games
Marcioften banned
OmaR · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Eixn · 7 games
Pucksignature
No!ob · 6 games
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 6 games
Zeusoften banned
No!ob · 5 games
Tusk
OmaR · 4 games
NOSTRVM
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 268 bans
Marci
304 picks · 553 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 214 bans
Undying
279 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 452 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 524 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% NOSTRVM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
PSG Quest 48%NOSTRVM 52%
The model gave 52% on NOSTRVM — the game was taken by PSG Quest.
Game 2prediction missed
PSG Quest 48%NOSTRVM 52%
The model gave 52% on NOSTRVM — the game was taken by PSG Quest.
Model check result
Model favoriteNOSTRVM · 52%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2