Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Online Kingdomloss 0:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Fiery Bubblewin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Online Kingdom
No games played over 6 months.
Fiery Bubble
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 267 bans
Marci
304 picks · 553 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 213 bans
Undying
279 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 452 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 522 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Online Kingdom
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Online Kingdom
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:44
Online Kingdom 50%Fiery Bubble 50%
The model gave 50% on Online Kingdom — the game was taken by Fiery Bubble in 48:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteOnline Kingdom · 50%
Series resultFiery Bubble 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1