Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Yubaba Fansloss 0:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CGCreep Gamingwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yubaba Fans
No games played over 6 months.
Creep Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
350 picks · 267 bans
Marci
304 picks · 553 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 213 bans
Undying
279 picks · 464 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 451 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 521 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
209 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Yubaba Fans
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Yubaba Fans
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:40
Yubaba Fans 52%Creep Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Yubaba Fans — the game was taken by Creep Gaming in 31:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteYubaba Fans · 52%
Series resultCreep Gaming 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1