Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Empire Hopewin 1:0series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
intelegentloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire Hope
Pudgesignature
krylat · 12 games
Iosignature
antoha · 9 games
Vipersignature
Mastery · 8 games
Timbersawsignature
pJonn · 6 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
antoha · 6 games
Dazzle
antoha · 5 games
Razoroften banned
Mastery · 5 games
Visageoften banned
pJonn · 5 games
intelegent
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 266 bans
Marci
306 picks · 554 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 213 bans
Undying
279 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 451 bans
Primal Beast
234 picks · 523 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 307 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 111 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Team Empire Hope
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:7
Team Empire Hope 63%intelegent 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Empire Hope — the game was taken by Team Empire Hope in 17:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire Hope · 63%
Series resultTeam Empire Hope 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1